U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability. An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify. Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control. The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

A formal U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control agreement concluded between 14 August and 31 December 2025 is the heaviest-backed outcome in this market, though trading volume remains thin and broadly distributed across the available resolution windows. The market structure reflects deep uncertainty about whether any concluded agreement — treaty, framework, or memorandum — can be finalised within the specified timeframe. Resolution requires a public announcement acknowledged by both governments, not merely exploratory talks.

Market structure

The market offers three outcomes tied to different resolution windows, with volume thinly and broadly distributed rather than concentrated on any single date. The June 2026 window carries a small share of current trading. Resolution requires an official, publicly announced and mutually acknowledged agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic weapons limitation. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to negotiate do not qualify. The final resolution deadline is 30 June 2026.

Background

The New START treaty — the last remaining bilateral nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia — was suspended by Russia in February 2023 and formally expired in February 2026 without renewal, leaving the two largest nuclear arsenals without a shared verification or limitation framework for the first time in decades. Diplomatic contact on strategic stability issues has been sporadic since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Both governments have at various points indicated openness to future arms control dialogue, but substantive negotiations have not been publicly confirmed as having resumed. The absence of any successor arrangement has prompted concern among non-proliferation experts and allied governments about the erosion of strategic predictability between the two powers.

Key factors

Several structural factors shape the likelihood of a concluded agreement within the 2025 window. First, the diplomatic calendar: no formal negotiating sessions on nuclear arms control have been publicly announced, and the lead time required to draft, agree, and announce even a framework agreement is typically measured in months or years. Second, the geopolitical environment: the war in Ukraine and associated sanctions and diplomatic estrangement have significantly reduced the bandwidth and political will on both sides for arms control engagement. Third, domestic political considerations in Washington — including Senate treaty ratification requirements for binding agreements and the current administration's stated priorities — could accelerate or impede progress. Fourth, the resolution criteria explicitly exclude exploratory discussions, meaning that even a high-profile summit or joint statement short of a concluded agreement would not qualify. Any qualifying agreement must address substantive matters: warheads, delivery systems, verification, or strategic stability, and must be acknowledged publicly by both parties.

FAQ