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Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026·$10.3k 24h vol·geopolitics
5 comments·$32.1k total volume·Open for 148 days

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

10%-7.0%

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Understand this market

This market asks whether Ursula von der Leyen will lose or leave her job as the top executive of the European Union before the end of 2026. Von der Leyen leads the European Commission, which is roughly the EU's government and proposes all major EU laws and policies. A Yes means she's gone — resigned, removed, or otherwise out. A No means she's still in the role on December 31, 2026.

OutcomeYesNo
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

Order Book

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

PriceSharesTotal
20.0¢10$2
19.0¢520$99
18.0¢208$37
17.0¢424$72
16.0¢422$67
15.0¢296$44
14.0¢300$42
13.0¢200$26
12.0¢40$5
11.0¢11$1
9.0¢last trade
3.0¢ spread
8.0¢132$11
7.0¢194$14
6.0¢25$2
5.0¢215$11
4.0¢645$26
3.0¢740$22
2.0¢14$0
1.0¢208$2
$87 bids$396 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

10%