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When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?

When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?

Resolves Nov 1, 2026·$6.0k 24h vol·weather
$152.8k total volume·Open for 46 days

October 1 - 31, 2026

77%+48.0%
OutcomeYesNo
October 1 - 31, 2026
No return before November 1, 2026

Order Book

October 1 - 31, 2026

PriceSharesTotal
94.0¢938$882
93.0¢336$312
90.0¢148$134
89.0¢985$877
88.0¢802$705
87.0¢69$60
86.0¢56$48
85.0¢5$4
74.0¢last trade
17.0¢ spread
68.0¢149$101
67.0¢50$34
53.0¢218$116
52.0¢129$67
50.0¢68$34
46.0¢5$2
41.0¢20$8
40.0¢5$2
$364 bids$3.0k asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).

October 1 - 31, 2026

77%