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Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Resolves Jan 1, 2028·$1.1k 24h vol·tech
$276.3k total volume·Open for 45 days

Hodge Conjecture

36%-16.5%
OutcomeYesNo
Hodge Conjecture
No solution by Dec 31, 2027
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer
Yang-Mills
P versus NP
Riemann Hypothesis

Order Book

Hodge Conjecture

PriceSharesTotal
47.0¢50$24
45.0¢400$180
42.0¢451$189
41.0¢400$164
40.0¢2.1k$836
39.0¢2.4k$953
38.0¢725$276
37.0¢885$327
37.0¢last trade
2.0¢ spread
35.0¢933$327
34.0¢300$102
33.0¢50$17
30.0¢150$45
29.0¢55$16
16.0¢5$1
15.0¢667$100
14.0¢3.0k$415
$1.0k bids$2.9k asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Hodge Conjecture

36%