Will Anduril's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anduril's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Anduril's valuation is heavily backed to remain below $80B by December 2026, with the sub-$80B and sub-$75B thresholds drawing the most concentrated volume on the downside. On the upside, the $95B threshold is the heaviest-backed outcome, suggesting the market sees a plausible but contested path to that level. Resolution is based on the NPM Price published by Nasdaq Private Market for any date up to 31 December 2026.

Market structure

The market spans eleven outcomes, covering both downside thresholds (sub-$65B, sub-$70B, sub-$75B, sub-$80B) and upside thresholds ($95B through $200B). Volume is broadly distributed across the range, with notable concentration at the sub-$80B and $95B marks, forming a two-cluster structure. Resolution requires NPM to publish a price reaching or exceeding the listed amount on any single trading day. A fallback deadline of 11:59 PM ET on 4 January 2027 applies if data publication is delayed.

Background

Anduril Industries, the defence technology company founded by Palmer Luckey, has grown rapidly since its 2017 founding, supplying autonomous systems, surveillance infrastructure, and AI-enabled defence platforms primarily to US and allied military customers. In August 2024, the company raised a funding round that valued it at $14B. Subsequent rounds and secondary market activity have placed its implied valuation considerably higher, reflecting broader investor appetite for defence technology amid elevated geopolitical tensions and sustained growth in Western defence budgets. Anduril sits alongside a small cohort of privately held defence-tech firms whose valuations are tracked on secondary markets, making Nasdaq Private Market data one of the few systematic pricing sources available before any potential IPO.

Key factors

The primary driver of resolution is whether Anduril's NPM Price, updated once daily on trading days, reaches a given threshold at any point before year-end. Secondary market valuations on platforms such as NPM reflect the price at which shares change hands in private transactions; they can move sharply on new funding rounds, reported contract wins, or shifts in comparable public-company multiples. Key decision points include any new primary funding round, which typically resets the reference valuation; major US or allied defence contract awards, which affect perceived revenue visibility; and broader sentiment toward defence technology equities, which influences secondary-market pricing. An IPO or direct listing would switch the resolution source to public market capitalisation, potentially increasing price volatility and the speed at which thresholds could be breached. Regulatory developments, export restrictions, or programme cancellations could compress valuations, while escalating geopolitical events or expanded government AI procurement frameworks could support higher marks. Data publication continuity at NPM is also a structural dependency; cessation of coverage triggers a fallback to available data.

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