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Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

Resolves Jan 1, 2029·$231 24h vol·culture
$231 total volume·Open for 3 days

December 31, 2028

40%-4.0%
OutcomeYesNo
December 31, 2028
December 31, 2027
December 31, 2026

Order Book

December 31, 2028

PriceSharesTotal
96.0¢25$24
95.0¢10$10
93.0¢14$13
89.0¢9$8
84.0¢6$5
83.0¢41$34
82.0¢61$50
74.0¢10$7
50.0¢last trade
69.0¢ spread
5.0¢21$1
4.0¢25$1
3.0¢250$8
2.0¢500$10
1.0¢1.9k$19
$39 bids$152 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.

December 31, 2028

40%