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Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

Resolves Dec 31, 2026·$13 24h vol·tech
$3.9k total volume·Open for 12 days

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

14%-14.5%
OutcomeYesNo
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

Order Book

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

PriceSharesTotal
59.0¢5$3
42.0¢132$55
35.0¢888$311
33.0¢800$264
24.0¢238$57
23.0¢16$4
21.0¢63$13
17.0¢362$62
16.0¢456$73
15.0¢47$7
14.0¢last trade
1.0¢ spread
14.0¢913$128
13.0¢578$75
12.0¢278$33
10.0¢2.4k$239
7.0¢86$6
6.0¢250$15
5.0¢1.0k$50
4.0¢1.7k$69
3.0¢3.6k$108
2.0¢6.5k$129
$852 bids$848 asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

14%