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Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?

Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?

Resolves Dec 31, 2029·$1.7k 24h vol·weather
$1.7k total volume

December 31, 2026

56%+6.0%
OutcomeYesNo
December 31, 2026

Order Book

December 31, 2026

PriceSharesTotal
97.0¢100$97
96.0¢60$58
95.0¢13$13
90.0¢21$19
85.0¢12$10
62.0¢46$29
61.0¢214$131
60.0¢260$156
60.0¢last trade
8.0¢ spread
52.0¢40$21
51.0¢20$10
45.0¢20$9
39.0¢20$8
38.0¢20$8
36.0¢20$7
10.0¢21$2
7.0¢6$0
$65 bids$511 asks

Resolution Criteria

Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date. A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”. The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies. Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.

December 31, 2026

57%