Will Valve release Dota 2 Dark Carnival Act 2 by December 31?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve releases Act 2 of the Dark Carnival event in Dota 2 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The Dark Carnival is an in-game Dota 2 event that Valve launched on June 25, 2026. Its first act, "Midnight Run," was released in three chapters between June 25 and July 24, 2026. For the purposes of this market, "Act 2" refers to the second act of the Dark Carnival event: the next major installment of the Dark Carnival story following "Midnight Run," whether Valve labels it "Act 2," "Act II," "Part 2," or clearly presents it under a new name as the second act or next installment of the Dark Carnival following "Midnight Run." Additional chapters, stages, or content added to "Midnight Run" (including the chapters released on July 10 and July 24, 2026) do not qualify, nor do unrelated events, gameplay patches, or cosmetic releases. To qualify, Act 2 must be live in the public Dota 2 client and generally accessible to players, with at least its first stage or chapter playable. Act 2 will be considered released at the time it first becomes generally available in the public client. An announcement, teaser, trailer, or datamined content does not qualify on its own, and content available only in a test, beta, or experimental client, or only to a restricted group of invited players, does not qualify. For the purpose of this market, "Valve" refers to Valve Corporation, the developer and publisher of Dota 2. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve, including the official Dark Carnival page (https://www.dota2.com/darkcarnival) and Dota 2 news announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.