10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether an earthquake of magnitude 10.0 or greater will happen anywhere on Earth before the end of 2026. To put that number in perspective: the largest earthquake ever recorded in human history was a 9.5, in Chile in 1960. A 10.0 would be dramatically stronger than anything ever measured, releasing energy on a scale that seismologists consider essentially impossible given how fault lines on Earth actually work. The market settles as Yes only if the US Geological Survey records at least one earthquake measuring 10.0 or higher between December 8, 2025, and December 31, 2026. The USGS is the official source. There is a short grace period: if a very large quake happens near the deadline but has not yet been logged, the market can stay open until January 31, 2027. After any qualifying quake is registered, the market waits 24 hours for possible magnitude revisions before settling. The only earthquake news provided is a 4.9 magnitude event in Alaska in August 2026, with no casualties. That is a routine, moderate quake, and it is nowhere near the 10.0 threshold this market requires. There is no recent news pointing toward any seismic event relevant to this question. This market is priced at 1% Yes, and the science strongly supports that lopsided number. No earthquake above 9.5 has ever been recorded, and most seismologists believe a 10.0 is physically implausible given Earth's fault structure. The tiny remaining uncertainty is simply about whether something completely unprecedented and unexpected could occur, not about two competing realistic possibilities. This is much closer to a near-certainty of No than a genuine open question.

The odds right now

• 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?-0.9 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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