Anwar Ibrahim out as Prime Minister of Malaysia by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Anwar Ibrahim will lose the job of Prime Minister of Malaysia at any point before a chosen deadline. A Yes means he is no longer PM, for any reason: resignation, removal, a political collapse, detention, or anything else that ends his time in office. A No means he is still serving as PM when the deadline arrives. There are three separate deadlines to choose from, each priced independently. The market settles Yes the moment Anwar stops being Prime Minister, even if he just announces it before it officially takes effect. That covers resignation, being removed by parliament or the king, detention, or any situation where he is permanently blocked from doing the job. If none of that happens by the chosen deadline, it settles No. The source is official Malaysian government statements or, if those are unclear, a broad agreement among credible news outlets. No news relevant to Anwar's hold on power was provided. The recent headlines are about sports and unrelated government events in other countries. If you want to track what actually matters here, watch for signs of political coalition stress in Malaysia's parliament, any no-confidence vote discussions, or statements from Anwar himself about his future. Malaysian politics runs on a coalition government, which means Anwar's position depends on keeping several parties aligned, and coalition politics can shift quickly and without much warning. The July deadline has already passed at very low odds, so most of the live question sits in the September and December windows. The core uncertainty is that political crises are hard to foresee: a coalition falling apart or an unexpected legal development could happen fast, but so far there are no public signals pointing that way.

The odds right now

• December 31, 2026+8.5 pts (1w)31%
• September 30, 2026-1.5 pts (1w)22%
• July 31, 2026+0.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anwar Ibrahim ceases to be Prime Minister of Malaysia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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