Bank of Israel decision in August?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks what the Bank of Israel will do with its benchmark interest rate at its August 2026 meeting: leave it exactly where it is, cut it by a quarter of a percentage point, or raise it by a quarter of a percentage point. A basis point is just one-hundredth of one percent, so 25 basis points equals 0.25%. Think of it as asking: will Israel's central bank make borrowing cheaper, more expensive, or keep the cost of credit the same? The market settles based on the official announcement the Bank of Israel releases after its Monetary Committee meeting on August 31, 2026. Whatever the committee decides that day, compared to the rate just before the meeting, determines the outcome. One important edge case: if the meeting is cancelled or delayed so long that no decision comes before the next scheduled meeting, the market automatically resolves as No Change, even if the bank actually wanted to move rates. The provided news headlines are all about the Japanese yen weakening to a near 40-year low, which does not directly relate to Israeli monetary policy. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would matter to watch for are Bank of Israel statements about Israeli inflation, economic growth, or the shekel's exchange rate, as those are the factors the committee weighs when deciding whether to move rates. The market currently prices a steady rate at 67%, with a cut at 26%, so it leans clearly toward no action but does not rule out a cut. The genuine uncertainty comes from how Israeli inflation and the broader regional economic situation develop between now and August 31. Geopolitical conditions in the Middle East can shift quickly and affect the central bank's thinking. With over a month still to go, several data releases and events could meaningfully change the picture before the committee meets.

The odds right now

• No Change+25.0 pts (1w)65%
• 25 bps cut-25.0 pts (1w)26%
• 25 bps hike-0.1 pts (1w)3%
• 50+ bps cut-1.3 pts (1w)3%
• 50+ bps hike+0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Israel Monetary Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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