Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking who will finish in third place, by vote count, in the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election. In Brazilian elections, the first round is held on a single day and all candidates appear on the ballot at once. The top two finishers then go to a runoff. This market is not about who wins the presidency, it is specifically about who comes in third, which is the highest position that does not advance to the second round. After the October 4, 2026 first-round vote, the candidate among the listed names who receives the third-highest number of valid votes wins this market. The official source is Brazil's Superior Electoral Court, known as the TSE. If results are not confirmed by June 30, 2027, the market settles as 'Other.' One thing to note: if two candidates tie in votes, the tiebreaker is alphabetical order by last name, not a recount or any political process. None of the provided news headlines relate to Brazil's 2026 presidential election. They cover unrelated topics from other countries. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching for would be new Brazilian polling data, candidate eligibility rulings by the TSE, or major shifts in the political landscape such as new candidacies or party alliances forming ahead of 2026. The election is more than a year away, which is the single biggest source of uncertainty. The candidate field is not fully set. Renan Santos holds a strong lead in this market at 64%, so the main uncertainty is not whether two sides are evenly matched, it is more about whether something unexpected disrupts the current picture. Santos could face legal challenges, new candidates could enter, or polling could shift. Brazilian electoral politics can move quickly, and a lot can change before October 2026.

The odds right now

• Renan Santos-8.0 pts (1w)64%
• Ronaldo Caiado+1.0 pts (1w)17%
• Romeu Zema-1.6 pts (1w)5%
• Flávio Bolsonaro+0.4 pts (1w)5%
• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+0.1 pts (1w)2%
• Ratinho Júnior1%
• Fernando Haddad+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Tarcisio de Freitas0%
• Jair Bolsonaro0%
• Michelle Bolsonaro-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Eduardo Bolsonaro-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Camilo Santana0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves October 4, 2026

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.