Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 28 - August 4, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple counting question: how many times will Donald Trump post on Truth Social during a specific one-week window? It is not asking whether he posts, or what he says. It is asking the raw total number of posts. A Yes on the 120-139 bracket, for example, means the final count lands somewhere between 120 and 139 posts during those seven days. The brackets are like guessing how many songs play on a radio station in a week, just applied to one person's social media activity. At the end of the window, a tracker tool at xtracker.polymarket.com automatically counts all posts made between July 28 at noon ET and August 4 at noon ET. Main posts, reposts, and quote posts count. Replies do not, unless they appear on the main feed. One notable rule: if Trump deletes a post but the tracker captured it within about five minutes, it still counts. Whichever post-count bracket the final number falls into is the one that resolves as Yes. All others resolve No. The provided headlines cover topics like a new Canada-US bridge, a US-UK military summit, tariff actions on India, and a political memo, all from July 25, 2026. None of these directly reveal how active Trump has been on Truth Social lately, but politically busy news cycles have historically correlated with higher posting volume from him. These kinds of active news days are worth watching, because they tend to prompt more posts, reposts, and reactions. Trump's posting volume can swing a lot from week to week depending on news events, travel, political pressure, and personal focus, making any specific bracket genuinely hard to pin down. The three leading brackets cover 100 to 159 posts combined, and none holds a strong majority of the probability, which tells you the market itself sees real spread across outcomes. There is also a small technical uncertainty: the tracker's rules around deleted posts and main-feed replies add a layer of ambiguity that only matters at the margins, but could matter if the final count is close to a bracket boundary.

The odds right now

• 120-13923%
• 100-11918%
• 140-15914%
• 200+13%
• 40-5911%
• 80-9911%
• 160-1798%
• 180-1997%
• 20-391%
• 60-791%
• <200%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between July 28, 12:00 PM ET and August 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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