Elon Musk # tweets July 25 - July 27, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple counting question: how many times will Elon Musk post on X during a specific 48-hour window, from noon on July 25 to noon on July 27, 2026? Yes or No does not apply here since it is a multiple-choice market with three ranges: under 40 posts, 40 to 64 posts, or 65 to 89 posts. The market is essentially asking people to guess how active Musk will be on his own platform over those two days. A tracking tool at xtracker.polymarket.com will count Musk's posts during the window, and the range that matches the final count wins. Main posts, quote posts, and reposts all count. Replies do not count, unless they appear on his main feed rather than as a direct reply thread. Deleted posts still count if the tracker captured them within about 5 minutes of posting. The count runs from exactly noon ET on July 25 to noon ET on July 27, 2026. None of the provided news headlines relate meaningfully to this market. The stories cover a book review, a Tesla robotaxi topic, and an Indian state government report. None of them tell us anything about Musk's posting habits. What would actually matter to watch is how publicly active Musk is in the days leading up to that window, and whether any major news event pulls him into a heavy posting burst. Predicting anyone's social media activity two days in advance is genuinely difficult, and Musk's posting volume is especially unpredictable. He can go quiet or post dozens of times in a single afternoon depending on news, mood, or business events. A single controversy or big announcement could push his count from one range into another very quickly. The market currently spreads its weight across the lower two ranges, with the 40-64 band holding the most probability, but a high-activity day could shift things fast.

The odds right now

• 40-6446%
• <4027%
• 65-8922%
• 90-1146%
• 115-1390%
• 140-1640%
• 190-2140%
• 215-2390%
• 165-1890%
• 240+0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 27, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 25 12:00 PM ET to July 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.