Elon Musk # tweets July 25 - July 27, 2026?
40-64
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Understand this market
This market is asking a simple counting question: how many times will Elon Musk post on X during a specific 48-hour window, from noon on July 25 to noon on July 27, 2026? Yes or No does not apply here since it is a multiple-choice market with three ranges: under 40 posts, 40 to 64 posts, or 65 to 89 posts. The market is essentially asking people to guess how active Musk will be on his own platform over those two days.
A tracking tool at xtracker.polymarket.com will count Musk's posts during the window, and the range that matches the final count wins. Main posts, quote posts, and reposts all count. Replies do not count, unless they appear on his main feed rather than as a direct reply thread. Deleted posts still count if the tracker captured them within about 5 minutes of posting. The count runs from exactly noon ET on July 25 to noon ET on July 27, 2026.
None of the provided news headlines relate meaningfully to this market. The stories cover a book review, a Tesla robotaxi topic, and an Indian state government report. None of them tell us anything about Musk's posting habits. What would actually matter to watch is how publicly active Musk is in the days leading up to that window, and whether any major news event pulls him into a heavy posting burst.
Predicting anyone's social media activity two days in advance is genuinely difficult, and Musk's posting volume is especially unpredictable. He can go quiet or post dozens of times in a single afternoon depending on news, mood, or business events. A single controversy or big announcement could push his count from one range into another very quickly. The market currently spreads its weight across the lower two ranges, with the 40-64 band holding the most probability, but a high-activity day could shift things fast.
Order Book
40-64
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 25 12:00 PM ET to July 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Read the full market guide →40-64
46%