Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how much will prices in the eurozone rise over the full year 2026? Specifically, it is asking where annual inflation will land in December 2026, measured by a standard EU price index called the HICP. A result in the '2.8, 3.0%' bracket means prices are about 2.9% higher at the end of 2026 than they were at the end of 2025. A result of '3.1%+' means inflation stayed stubbornly high; '2.5, 2.7%' means it cooled closer to the European Central Bank's 2% target. This market settles on January 19, 2027, when Eurostat, the EU's official statistics agency, publishes its December 2026 inflation report. The number used is the official HICP figure rounded to one decimal place, for the 20 countries that use the euro. Whichever percentage bracket that single number falls into wins. One edge case worth knowing: if Eurostat does not publish December data by that date, the market uses the most recently available month's data instead. The provided news does not include anything directly about eurozone inflation in late 2026. One headline notes oil near $100 per barrel, which is worth watching because energy prices are a major driver of consumer inflation across Europe. If oil stays elevated through the end of 2026, that could push the final HICP reading higher. Any eurozone-specific inflation data or European Central Bank rate decisions would be the most relevant things to follow as the year progresses. Inflation over a full year involves many moving parts that are genuinely hard to forecast this far out. Energy prices, especially oil and gas, can shift quickly due to geopolitics or supply decisions. Wage growth across eurozone countries, the ECB's interest rate path, and global trade conditions all feed into the final number. The market currently spreads its probability fairly evenly across three brackets, which itself signals real disagreement. The gap between each bracket is only a few tenths of a percentage point, so even a small surprise in any direction changes the outcome.

The odds right now

• 3.1%++0.8 pts (1w)31%
• 2.8-3.0%+7.8 pts (1w)26%
• 2.5–2.7%+4.3 pts (1w)21%
• 1.9–2.1%-0.5 pts (1w)9%
• 2.2–2.4%-15.4 pts (1w)6%
• 1.6–1.8%-0.7 pts (1w)2%
• 1.3–1.5%-0.8 pts (1w)1%
• <1.0%0%
• 1.0–1.2%0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 19, 2027

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the Eurozone over the 12-month period ending December 2026 as reported by Eurostat. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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