Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how big Extended's crypto token will be, in dollar terms, shortly after it launches. 'FDV' stands for Fully Diluted Valuation: it is the total number of tokens that will ever exist, multiplied by the price of one token. Think of it as the theoretical total size of the project if every token were counted at once. The market is running at three different size thresholds: $150 million, $300 million, and $500 million. A 'Yes' means the token launched and hit that size; a 'No' means it did not. Each threshold resolves Yes if, at 4:00 PM Eastern Time on the calendar day after Extended's token launches, the FDV is above that number. The price used will come from whichever trading venue has the most activity at that moment. Two important edge cases: the token must be freely tradable by the public to count as a real launch, and if Extended never launches a token before December 31, 2026, all three markets resolve No automatically, regardless of anything else. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of updates worth watching for would be: an official launch announcement from Extended, any details about total token supply or initial pricing, or broader news about crypto market conditions, since those can heavily influence how new tokens are received on their first day of trading. New crypto token valuations on launch day are genuinely hard to predict. First, the token has not launched yet, so there is no price history to look at. Second, FDV on day one can move dramatically depending on early trading volume, hype, and overall crypto market sentiment that day. Third, the launch might not happen at all before the 2026 deadline. The three thresholds reflect this spread of outcomes: the market currently sees reaching $150M as plausible, but $500M as much less certain.

The odds right now

• $150M+4.0 pts (1w)78%
• $300M+6.5 pts (1w)48%
• $500M+6.0 pts (1w)27%
• $800M-0.5 pts (1w)11%
• $1B+1.5 pts (1w)9%
• $3B+0.3 pts (1w)2%
• $2B+0.4 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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