FL-09 Republican Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which Republican candidate will win the right to represent their party in the November 2026 election for Florida's 9th congressional district. It is not asking who wins the seat in November, just who wins the internal Republican contest first. A win for Thomas Chalifoux, Dan Green, or Jorge Martinez means that person becomes the official Republican nominee. The district covers part of Florida, and whoever wins this primary goes on to face the Democratic candidate in the general election. The market settles on whichever candidate wins the Republican primary vote held on August 18, 2026. The result is confirmed using official Republican Party sources. One important edge case: if somehow no nominee is declared by November 3, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other' instead. Also worth knowing, if the winner later drops out or is replaced before the general election, that does not change how this market resolves. Whoever won the primary is still the answer, even if they no longer appear on the November ballot. None of the recent news provided connects to this race. There are no headlines about Florida's 9th district, its candidates, or the Republican primary. If you want to follow developments that would actually matter here, watch for local Florida news about candidate fundraising, endorsements from Florida Republican officials, or polling specific to this district primary. The market currently prices Chalifoux as the frontrunner at 47%, but that still leaves more than half the probability spread across other candidates and unknowns, so this is genuinely open. Primary races in a single congressional district are notoriously hard to predict: turnout is low, local name recognition matters enormously, and late endorsements or local news can shift things quickly. With the vote still roughly a year away, a lot can change, including who is even still in the race by August 2026.

The odds right now

• Thomas Chalifoux+5.0 pts (1w)47%
• Dan Green-1.5 pts (1w)24%
• Jorge Martinez-3.5 pts (1w)13%
• Marcus Carter-1.9 pts (1w)9%
• Ben Butler-0.4 pts (1w)7%
• Justin Story-1.6 pts (1w)5%
• Steve Rance+0.4 pts (1w)1%
• Howard Steven Rance+0.5 pts (1w)1%
• Jorge Malavet-4.4 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 18, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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