FL-22 Republican Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks who will win the Republican Party's nomination to run for Florida's 22nd congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. A win for Michael Carbonara means he becomes the Republican candidate on the November ballot. A win for Belinda Keiser or Casey Askar means that person becomes the nominee instead. The primary is essentially an internal Republican vote to choose their one official representative for the general election. The market settles on whoever wins the August 18, 2026 Republican primary vote in FL-22. The result is confirmed using official Republican Party sources, including the RNC website. One important edge case: if for any reason no nominee is officially announced by November 3, 2026, the market resolves as "Other" rather than to any candidate. Also, if the winner later drops out before the general election, the market still resolves to whoever won the primary, not the replacement. None of the recent news provided is related to this race or to Florida's 22nd congressional district. There is nothing relevant to point to here. The kind of news that would matter includes local endorsements, candidate fundraising reports, polling from inside FL-22, or any candidate dropping out of or entering the race. The market currently prices Carbonara as the frontrunner at 59%, but that still leaves a 41% combined chance for the other two candidates, so this is genuinely competitive. Primary races are harder to predict than general elections because turnout is lower and more unpredictable. Local factors like endorsements, campaign spending, and name recognition in the specific district matter a lot, and that information is often hard to find for a congressional primary more than a year away.

The odds right now

• Michael Carbonara48%
• Belinda Keiser24%
• Casey Askar6%
• David Burck3%
• Terri Hasdorff3%
• Richard Evans3%
• Michael Thompson3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 18, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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