FL-25 Republican Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks which Republican candidate will win the primary election to become the GOP's official nominee for Florida's 25th congressional district in 2026. A win for Scott Singer means he becomes the Republican candidate on the November ballot; same for George Moraitis or Dan Franzese. This is not about the general election, only the internal Republican contest to decide who carries the party's flag. Whoever wins the most votes in the August 18, 2026 Republican primary for FL-25 wins the market. The result will be confirmed using official Republican Party sources. One important edge case: if no nominee is officially announced by November 3, 2026, the market settles as 'Other', not as any named candidate. Also, if a nominee later drops out before the general election, that does not change who this market pays out on. None of the recent news provided relates to this race. There are no headlines about FL-25, Scott Singer, George Moraitis, or Dan Franzese to point to. The kind of news that would matter here includes candidate fundraising reports, local endorsements, campaign events in the district, or any candidate dropping out or entering the race. This is a three-way primary with no candidate above 50%, which makes it genuinely competitive and harder to call. Singer leads at 46% in the market, but Moraitis and Franzese together account for most of the remaining probability. Primary elections, especially in congressional districts, often have low turnout and can swing based on local organizing, late endorsements, or last-minute events. With more than a year until the vote, a lot can still change.

The odds right now

• Scott Singer34%
• George Moraitis31%
• Dan Franzese18%
• Raven Harrison5%
• Joseph Kaufman5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 18, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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