FL-25 Democratic Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks who will win the Democratic Party's nomination to run for Florida's 25th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. A win for Jared Moskowitz means he becomes the Democratic candidate heading into the November 2026 general election. A win for Oliver Larkin means he gets that spot instead. This is only about the primary, meaning the contest between Democrats to pick their own candidate, not the final election against Republicans. The market settles on whoever wins the Democratic primary vote on August 18, 2026. The result is confirmed using official Democratic Party sources, including the party's own website. One important detail: if someone wins the primary but then steps aside before the general election, the market still resolves based on who won the primary, not who eventually runs in November. If no nominee is confirmed by November 3, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other'. None of the recent news provided relates directly to this race or to Jared Moskowitz and Oliver Larkin. There is no specific recent coverage to point to here. The kind of news that would matter for this market includes local Florida campaign updates, new candidate announcements, endorsements, or polling from within FL-25. The market is heavily one-sided, with Moskowitz priced at 92%. At that level, the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens before August 18, 2026. Moskowitz is a well-known Florida figure, a former congressman, which explains the lopsided odds. The realistic scenarios that could shift things are a late major endorsement for Larkin, a significant controversy involving Moskowitz, or a new candidate entering the race. But the market currently treats those scenarios as unlikely.

The odds right now

• Jared Moskowitz92%
• Oliver Larkin8%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 18, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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