Grok (Web) Outage by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the web version of Grok, xAI's AI assistant, will suffer a full outage at some point before a given deadline. A 'Yes' means the official xAI status page logs a confirmed outage specifically for Grok's website. A 'No' means no such outage is officially recorded by that date. The three deadlines shown (August 31, October 31, December 31, 2026) are separate versions of the same question, each giving a different window of time for the outage to happen. This resolves Yes only if the xAI status page at status.x.ai lists an incident for 'Grok (Web)' with the label 'outage' and marks it 'Resolved' before the deadline. Two important edge cases: first, problems on Grok's mobile apps or its version inside X do not count, only the standalone web product. Second, incidents labeled 'disruption' or 'info' do not qualify, even if they describe serious problems. The status page itself is the only source used, and if it goes permanently offline, the market resolves No. The two recent news items provided are about electricity shortages in South Africa and have no clear connection to Grok or xAI's web services. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development that would matter is any reported service disruption or reliability issue specifically affecting the Grok website. The core challenge is that outages on web services are largely unpredictable, they depend on infrastructure decisions, traffic spikes, software bugs, and factors no outside observer can see in advance. The label distinction matters a lot too: a real service problem could be logged as a 'disruption' rather than an 'outage' and not count at all. The market prices the December deadline at 77%, reflecting that more time simply means more chances for an outage to occur, but the exact timing stays genuinely unknown.

The odds right now

• December 3187%
• October 3135%
• August 3122%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Grok (Web) experiences an incident labeled “outage” on the official xAI Grok (Web) status page between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Only incidents listed under Grok (Web) will be considered. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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