Grok 5 released by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking when xAI (Elon Musk's AI company) will release Grok 5, its next major AI model, to the general public. The different odds you see are for different deadline dates: the highest-odds option (67%) is asking whether it happens by December 31, 2026, while the smaller options ask about much earlier dates in August 2025. A 'Yes' means Grok 5 is out and anyone can use it by that date. A 'No' means it hasn't launched publicly in time. For this market to settle as Yes, xAI must release a model explicitly called 'Grok 5' (or clearly announced as the next flagship generation after Grok 4) and make it openly accessible to the public before the deadline. That includes open betas or open waitlists, but not private or closed testing. Importantly, incremental updates like 'Grok 4.6' or specialized task models won't count, even if they are technically impressive. The official source is xAI's own announcements, confirmed by credible tech reporting. No notable recent news about Grok 5's development or release timeline was provided for this market. The kind of news that would matter here includes any official xAI announcements about Grok 5, leaked benchmarks, or credible reporting on the model's training progress or planned launch window. The main challenge is that AI model release timelines are genuinely unpredictable, even for insiders. xAI could accelerate development, delay it, or choose to release a model under a different naming scheme that might not qualify. The December 2026 deadline is far away, which gives a wide window, and the market prices it at 67%, reflecting that it is more likely than not but far from certain. The strict naming and access rules in the criteria also add a layer of ambiguity around what exactly counts.

The odds right now

• December 31-1.5 pts (1w)72%
• August 31-12.6 pts (1w)3%
• August 15-0.4 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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