Hawaii Governor Democratic Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking who will win the Democratic Party's primary election for Governor of Hawaii in 2026. A win for Josh Green means he gets the Democratic nomination and will represent the party in the general election. A win for anyone else means Green lost the primary. Green is the current sitting governor of Hawaii, so this is essentially asking whether he wins his own party's re-nomination contest. The market settles on whoever wins the Democratic primary vote on August 8, 2026. The result is confirmed using official Democratic Party sources. One important edge case: if somehow no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other' instead. Also, if a winner is later replaced as the nominee before the general election, that replacement does not change how this market resolves. It locks in on the primary winner, not whoever ultimately runs in November. None of the recent news provided is related to this market. There are no relevant headlines about the Hawaii governor's race, Josh Green, or the Democratic primary. The kind of news that would matter here includes polling updates, new candidates entering the race, or any controversy involving Green that could affect his standing with Democratic voters. At 97%, the market is heavily priced in favor of Josh Green, so there is very little perceived uncertainty here. Green is the incumbent governor, and incumbent governors who seek re-nomination almost never lose their own party's primary. The main remaining uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens before August 8, such as a major scandal, a health issue, or a surprise candidate gaining traction. The odds reflect that such an outcome would be genuinely surprising, not that it is impossible.

The odds right now

• Josh Green+2.9 pts (1w)97%
• David Bourgoin-18.4 pts (1w)1%
• George Lucas-Tadeo-15.1 pts (1w)1%
• Lauren Kapoliahi'laka Shim-7.5 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 8, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the election for Governor of Hawaii in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 8, 2026. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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