HI-02 Democratic Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which candidate will win the Democratic Party's nomination to run for Hawaii's second congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. A Yes for Jill Tokuda means she wins the Democratic primary and becomes the party's official candidate for the November election. The same logic applies to the other candidates. Winning this primary does not mean winning the seat itself, just the right to represent the Democratic Party in the general election. The market settles on whoever officially wins the Democratic primary election on August 8, 2026. The result will be confirmed using official Democratic Party sources. One important detail: if the winning nominee is later replaced before election day for any reason, the market still pays out based on who won the primary, not who ultimately runs in November. If no nominee is confirmed by November 3, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other'. None of the provided news headlines relate to this race. There is no recent reporting here about Jill Tokuda, the other candidates, or the Hawaii second district primary. The kind of news that would matter includes candidate announcements, endorsements, fundraising reports, or any candidate dropping out of the race before August 8. The market is heavily one-sided, with Tokuda priced at 96%. At that level, the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected happens before August 8, 2026. She currently holds the congressional seat for this district, which gives an incumbent a strong structural advantage. The realistic scenarios that could shift this are a late entry by a stronger challenger, a major controversy, or an unusually low-turnout primary where results surprise people. Those are real possibilities, just not the ones the market currently weighs heavily.

The odds right now

• Jill Tokuda96%
• Greg Guithues2%
• Kirill Basin2%
• Steven King1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 8, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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