Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, what will the highest temperature of the day be at Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius? The three options are 20°C, 21°C, or 22°C, which translate to roughly 68°F, 70°F, and 72°F. A "Yes" on 21°C, for example, means the thermometer peaked at exactly 21°C that day. It is a simple question about one number recorded at one specific weather station on one specific day. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station on July 21, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The temperature is measured in whole degrees Celsius, so there is no rounding needed beyond what the station already reports. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 22 appears on that site. Any corrections made before that cutoff count, but corrections after it do not. The three listed options cover 20°C, 21°C, and 22°C, so if the high falls outside that range, other options may apply. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The one headline provided is about an Indian parliamentary session and has no connection to Amsterdam weather. What would actually matter to watch is any updated weather forecast for the Netherlands in the days leading up to July 21, particularly forecasts from services like KNMI, the Dutch national weather service. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and a single-degree difference is a narrow target. The market places the highest odds on 21°C at 41%, followed closely by 20°C at 35% and 22°C at 17%, meaning no outcome is dominant. A passing cloud, a shift in wind direction, or slightly warmer than expected sunshine could push the reading one degree either way. The specific station at Schiphol can also read differently from the city center, adding a small extra layer of unpredictability.

The odds right now

• 21°C50%
• 22°C32%
• 20°C18%
• 23°C2%
• 19°C2%
• 24°C1%
• 18°C1%
• 17°C0%
• 26°C or higher0%
• 16°C or below0%
• 25°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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