Highest temperature in Milan on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Milan get on July 21, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of that day, rounded to a whole number in Celsius. The three options are 29°C (about 84°F), 30°C (86°F), and 31°C (88°F). Those are all warm summer afternoon temperatures, a narrow band of roughly 2-3 degrees separating the choices. The market is not asking about averages or overnight lows, just the peak heat of that one day. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at Malpensa International Airport on July 21, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website for that station. Whichever temperature bucket contains that peak reading wins. The number is taken to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so 29.7°C would count as 30°C, not 29°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 22 appears on that site, after which no corrections are considered. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The type of development that would matter here is a seasonal forecast for northern Italy in mid-to-late July 2026, or any notable climate pattern like a heat dome or unusually cool summer outlook. As the date gets closer, short-range weather forecasts from services like Copernicus or the Italian meteorological service would become the most useful signal to watch. The core difficulty is that July weather in Milan is genuinely variable. Milan sits in the Po Valley and can swing between pleasant summer days and intense heat waves, so a 2-3 degree difference in the peak is well within normal day-to-day uncertainty. The market reflects this honestly: the top two options each hold about a third of the probability. The forecast also sits over a year away, meaning no weather model can say anything meaningful yet about this specific date.

The odds right now

• 31°C38%
• 30°C31%
• 29°C16%
• 32°C14%
• 28°C3%
• 33°C2%
• 27°C1%
• 26°C1%
• 25°C0%
• 34°C or higher0%
• 24°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.