Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Amsterdam get on July 25, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of the day at Schiphol Airport, rounded to a whole number in Celsius. A "Yes" on 24°C means the peak temperature that day lands exactly at 24 degrees, not 23, not 25. Think of it like guessing the top of a thermometer for one specific summer day in the Netherlands. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on July 25, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website for that station. Whichever whole-degree Celsius value that peak reading lands on is the winner. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 26 appears on that site. Any late corrections to the July 25 data before that cutoff count, but corrections after do not. No recent news relevant to Amsterdam weather on July 25, 2026 was provided. That is completely normal this far out: meaningful weather forecasts for a specific date only become reliable about 7 to 10 days in advance. The kind of news that would actually matter here is a detailed forecast from a meteorological service in the days just before July 25. Weather on a single future summer day, more than a year away, is genuinely impossible to predict with precision. Even with a good forecast a week out, the difference between 23°C, 24°C, and 25°C is a matter of a few degrees that can shift based on wind direction, cloud cover, or a passing weather system. The market spreads its odds fairly evenly across three adjacent temperatures, which honestly reflects how close and uncertain these outcomes are.

The odds right now

• 24°C39%
• 25°C29%
• 23°C17%
• 26°C11%
• 22°C6%
• 27°C1%
• 21°C1%
• 20°C or below1%
• 28°C1%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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