Highest temperature in Ankara on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: how hot will Ankara get on July 21, 2026? Specifically, it asks which single temperature, in whole degrees Celsius, will be the highest recorded that day at the Esenboğa Airport weather station. Right now the market thinks 34°C is most likely, with 33°C as a close second and 35°C as a longer shot. To picture the scale: 34°C is about 93°F, a genuinely hot summer day. The market settles based on the single peak temperature recorded at Esenboğa Airport on July 21, 2026, pulled from Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. It uses whole numbers only, so 33.7°C would count as 33°C. The market cannot close until the first data point for July 22 appears on that page, locking in the final reading. Any corrections Weather Underground makes before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. One nearby headline is relevant: Greece was bracing for temperatures up to 41°C on July 19, 2026, suggesting a strong heat event was moving through the broader region just days before this market's date. That kind of regional heat pattern can push temperatures higher in neighboring countries like Turkey. The other headlines provided are unrelated to this market. Watch for any forecasts or weather alerts specifically for central Anatolia in the days leading up to July 21. Weather forecasting more than a day or two ahead carries real uncertainty, and this market covers a single specific day over a year away. The three options are tightly clustered, just one degree apart, which means even a small shift in wind direction or cloud cover on the day could flip the result. The regional heat news adds a hint that summer 2026 may be running warm, but one data point cannot tell us what one specific day in Ankara will bring.

The odds right now

• 33°C56%
• 34°C31%
• 32°C11%
• 35°C5%
• 31°C1%
• 36°C1%
• 37°C0%
• 30°C or below0%
• 38°C0%
• 39°C0%
• 40°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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