Highest temperature in Busan on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 25, 2026, how hot will it get in Busan, South Korea? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of the day, measured in whole degrees Celsius, at the weather station located at Gimhae International Airport. A result of 34°C means the peak heat that day lands in the 34-degree range, while 35°C means it was hotter, and 33°C means it was cooler than most expect. The market settles based on the highest temperature logged at the Gimhae Airport weather station on July 25, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground. It cannot close until at least one reading from July 26 appears, confirming the previous day is complete. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees, so no decimals are involved. Any corrections to the July 25 data are accepted right up until that first July 26 data point appears, but not after. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. For a weather question like this, the kinds of developments worth watching would be extended heat forecasts for South Korea in late July, any unusual weather patterns forming in the region, or historical temperature records for Busan in that period of the summer. Weather 12 months out is genuinely impossible to forecast with precision. July is reliably hot in Busan, which is why the market clusters around 33 to 35°C, but a single degree makes all the difference here. Heat waves, coastal breezes off the Korea Strait, and humidity all shift the peak reading. Even professional meteorologists work with narrow windows. The market prices 34°C as the most likely outcome at 40%, but the remaining 60% is spread across other possibilities, reflecting real spread in outcomes.

The odds right now

• 34°C42%
• 35°C30%
• 36°C13%
• 33°C11%
• 37°C3%
• 32°C2%
• 30°C or below0%
• 31°C0%
• 38°C0%
• 39°C0%
• 40°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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