Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Chengdu get on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it asks you to pick which single degree Celsius the peak temperature will land on that day, measured at the airport weather station. If the hottest reading of the day is 40°C (about 104°F), the '40°C' outcome wins. If it hits 41°C, that one wins instead. Each degree is its own separate outcome, so the question is really about pinpointing the exact peak, not just whether it will be hot. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on July 23, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. The number is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so a reading of 39.7°C would count as 40°C. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 24 appears on that site. Any corrections made before that cutoff count, but corrections after it do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of news that would matter here includes seasonal forecasts for Sichuan province, any heat dome or weather pattern alerts for central China in late July, or historical temperature records for Chengdu in that part of summer. Weather this far out, over a year away, is genuinely hard to pin to a single degree. The market is spread fairly evenly across 39°C, 40°C, and 41°C, which reflects real uncertainty rather than a clear favorite. Chengdu in late July is typically very hot, so the question is not whether it will be warm but exactly where the peak lands. A single degree difference can depend on passing clouds, a brief rain shower, or wind direction on that one afternoon.

The odds right now

• 40°C28%
• 39°C26%
• 41°C19%
• 38°C16%
• 42°C8%
• 37°C6%
• 36°C2%
• 35°C1%
• 34°C or below1%
• 43°C1%
• 44°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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