Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, how hot will it get in Chongqing? Specifically, it wants to know which temperature bucket, 38°C, 39°C, or 40°C (roughly 100°F to 104°F), will contain the single highest reading of the day at one specific weather station near the city's main airport. A win for "39°C" means the peak temperature that day lands right at 39°C, not a range, just that exact whole-number degree. The market settles based on the peak temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei Airport weather station on July 21, 2026, as logged by Weather Underground. The data is rounded to whole degrees Celsius, so a reading of 39.7°C would count as 39°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 22 appears on the site. Any corrections published before that cutoff count; any corrections after it do not. No recent news was provided that relates to Chongqing's weather or any upcoming heat event. The two headlines from July 20 cover unrelated topics. What would actually matter here is a regional weather forecast for Chongqing around July 21, or news about an incoming heat wave or unusual weather pattern in central China. Weather is genuinely hard to pin to a single degree a year in advance, and that is the core challenge here. The three leading options, 38, 39, and 40°C, together cover about 88% of the market's probability, meaning the crowd thinks the day will almost certainly be very hot but is genuinely split on exactly how hot. Chongqing is one of China's hottest summer cities, so extreme heat is plausible, but the precise peak on any one day depends on cloud cover, wind, and timing, things no forecast can reliably predict this far out.

The odds right now

• 39°C47%
• 40°C30%
• 38°C16%
• 41°C8%
• 37°C4%
• 36°C1%
• 42°C1%
• 35°C1%
• 43°C0%
• 34°C or below0%
• 44°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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