Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Chongqing get on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport weather station. The three options are 39°C, 40°C, or 41°C, which in everyday terms means the difference between a very hot day (39°C is about 102°F), an extremely hot day (40°C is 104°F), and a brutal heat-wave level day (41°C is about 106°F). You are picking which one-degree bucket the peak temperature falls into. The market settles on whichever single temperature option matches the day's recorded high at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport, read from Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. The temperature is recorded as a whole number in Celsius, so no rounding is needed. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 23 appears on that page, after which any corrections to the July 22 reading are ignored. There are no other edge cases mentioned, but note that only that one specific station is used, not city-wide averages. There is no relevant recent news provided for this market. The one headline in the feed is about a graduation ceremony in Namibia, which has no connection to Chongqing weather. To follow this market, the thing worth watching closer to July 22 would be extended forecasts for Chongqing and any regional heat-wave alerts issued by Chinese meteorological authorities. Chongqing is one of China's hottest cities in summer, regularly hitting 40°C or above in July, so the market is spread fairly evenly across a tight three-degree range. The honest difficulty here is that single-day peak temperatures are genuinely hard to pin down even a few days in advance: a shift in cloud cover, humidity, or a passing storm can swing the high by a degree or two. The three options are priced close enough that small, unpredictable changes in weather patterns could easily tip the result in any direction.

The odds right now

• 40°C34%
• 39°C30%
• 41°C18%
• 38°C12%
• 42°C5%
• 37°C2%
• 43°C1%
• 36°C1%
• 35°C or below0%
• 44°C0%
• 45°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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