Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, what will the single hottest reading of the day be at Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport weather station? The different temperature options (30°C, 31°C, 32°C, and presumably others) each represent a possible peak temperature, and you are picking which one the thermometer actually hits at its highest point that day. Think of it as guessing the top of the day's temperature curve, measured in whole degrees. The market settles on whichever temperature bracket matches the highest reading recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun Airport on July 21, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. The reading must be in whole degrees Celsius, so 31.7°C would count as 31°C, not 32°C. Resolution happens once the first data point for July 22 appears on that page, locking in the final number. Any corrections Weather Underground makes before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. No weather-related news was provided that directly affects the July 21 temperature forecast. The only recent headline is about dengue prevention efforts near universities, which reflects the hot and humid conditions typical of Guangzhou in mid-summer, but does not tell us anything specific about that day's peak temperature. The kind of news that would matter here would be a forecast of an unusual heat wave or a tropical system affecting southern China around that date. July weather in Guangzhou is genuinely hard to pin down more than a few days out, so predicting a specific peak temperature over a year in advance is very uncertain. The market spreads probability across several options, with 32°C leading at 30% but no single answer dominating. Guangzhou's July highs typically cluster in the low-to-mid 30s, but a passing cloud system, a typhoon nearby, or unusual humidity could push the peak up or down on any given day. The spread of current odds honestly reflects that wide uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 31°C90%
• 32°C9%
• 33°C1%
• 34°C0%
• 26°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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