Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 22, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Guangzhou, measured at the Baiyun Airport weather station? The three options represent three possible answers: the peak temperature lands at 32°C, 33°C, or 34°C. In everyday terms, Guangzhou in late July is deep in summer, typically hot and humid, and the question is simply which of those three degree marks the thermometer peaks at on that specific day. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun Airport on July 22, 2026, as reported by the weather site Wunderground. The number is rounded to a whole degree Celsius, so a reading of 33.7°C counts as 33°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 23 appears on that page, after which any later corrections to the July 22 data are ignored. There is no human judgment involved: it is purely what that one station reports. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Since the date is still over a year away, there is nothing weather-specific to point to yet. What would matter closer to the date: seasonal forecasts for southern China in July, any signals about whether that summer is trending hotter or cooler than average, and real-time weather reports in the days leading up to July 22, 2026. Weather on a single specific day over a year in advance is genuinely hard to predict, even for meteorologists. The three options cluster in a fairly narrow range (32 to 34°C), meaning even a small shift in cloud cover, humidity, or wind direction on that day could change the answer. The market currently spreads probability fairly evenly across all three, with 33°C slightly favored, which honestly reflects how uncertain a single-day high temperature is this far out. No one has strong information yet.

The odds right now

• 33°C39%
• 34°C28%
• 32°C18%
• 35°C8%
• 31°C8%
• 36°C or higher2%
• 30°C1%
• 29°C1%
• 26°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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