Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the single highest temperature of the day be in Shenzhen on July 21, 2026, measured in whole degrees Celsius? It is a multiple-choice market, not a simple Yes or No. Each option represents one possible peak temperature. You pick whichever number you think the thermometer will top out at that day. Shenzhen in late July is deep in summer, so the question is really about exactly how hot that particular day gets. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded on July 21, 2026 at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport weather station, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so 31.7°C would count as 31°C. The market cannot close until at least one reading from July 22 appears on that site, confirming the day is fully logged. Any late corrections to the July 21 data are accepted up until that first July 22 reading appears. There is no relevant recent news provided for this market. The one headline listed is about an Indian parliamentary session and is unrelated to Shenzhen weather. To track this market meaningfully, you would want to watch short-range weather forecasts for Shenzhen in the days leading up to July 21, 2026, particularly any signals about heat waves, cloud cover, or monsoon-related cooling in the region. Late July in Shenzhen is hot and humid, and historical highs typically cluster in the 31 to 34 degrees Celsius range, which is why the market spreads probability across nearby values. But the exact daily peak is genuinely hard to pin down even a day in advance. Cloud cover, rain, humidity shifts, and sea breeze all push the number up or down by a degree or two. A single degree separates each outcome here, so even a small forecast error means the wrong answer. The market is about a year away, making precision nearly impossible right now.

The odds right now

• 31°C34%
• 30°C22%
• 32°C22%
• 29°C12%
• 33°C3%
• 28°C2%
• 34°C1%
• 35°C or higher1%
• 27°C0%
• 25°C or below0%
• 26°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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