Highest temperature in Helsinki on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, what will the highest temperature of the day be at Helsinki's main airport, measured in whole degrees Celsius? The leading options cluster around 14°C, 15°C, and 16°C, which for late July in Helsinki would be a cool to mild summer day. To picture it: 15°C is about 59°F, a light-jacket kind of afternoon. The market is essentially a temperature forecast for one specific day at one specific weather station. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading logged at Helsinki Vantaa Airport on July 21, 2026, as recorded on the Weather Underground website. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees, so 15.7°C would count as 15°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 22 appears on that site. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; corrections made after do not. There is no human judgment involved, just the number on that page. None of the recent news provided is relevant to this market. The headlines cover topics like wildfires in Greece, immigration, and education funding, none of which connect to weather in Helsinki. To watch for anything useful here, you would want to look at medium-range weather forecasts for southern Finland as July 21 approaches, since reliable forecasts typically only reach about 7 to 10 days out. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a week in advance, and this market ends more than a year away, so current odds reflect historical climate patterns rather than any actual forecast. Late July in Helsinki can range from cold and rainy to surprisingly warm. The spread across 14°C, 15°C, and 16°C, each holding roughly a quarter of the probability, honestly reflects that uncertainty. A single passing storm or an unexpected warm front on that one day could shift the outcome by several degrees in either direction.

The odds right now

• 15°C41%
• 14°C25%
• 16°C24%
• 13°C6%
• 17°C5%
• 18°C1%
• 12°C1%
• 19°C0%
• 20°C0%
• 11°C or below0%
• 21°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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