Highest temperature in Houston on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, how hot will it get in Houston? Specifically, it asks which temperature range the day's single highest reading will fall into. The three options are 96-97°F, 98-99°F, or 100-101°F. A "Yes" for any one range means the thermometer peaked inside those two degrees that day. It is a simple question about one afternoon in a famously hot city, settled by one number from one weather station. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at William P. Hobby Airport on July 21, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. Whoever runs this market checks that page after midnight on July 22, once the next day's first data point appears, locking in whatever the peak reading was. The temperature is rounded to whole degrees Fahrenheit, so 98.7°F counts as 98°F. Any corrections Weather Underground makes before that cutoff are counted; corrections made after are not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development that would matter here is a seasonal weather forecast for Houston in mid-to-late July 2026, or updates about El Niño or La Niña patterns that tend to push Texas summers hotter or cooler than average. As the date gets closer, local forecasts from the National Weather Service would become the most useful thing to watch. Mid-July Houston heat is predictable in a general sense, which is why the market clusters so tightly around 98-99°F. But daily peak temperatures can still swing several degrees depending on cloud cover, wind, humidity, and whether a storm passes through and cools the afternoon. The gap between 96°F and 101°F is real. July 2026 is also more than a year away, so no forecast yet exists for that specific day. The main uncertainty is simply the normal variability of a single summer afternoon.

The odds right now

• 98-99°F49%
• 100-101°F24%
• 96-97°F23%
• 94-95°F6%
• 102-103°F2%
• 104°F or higher1%
• 92-93°F0%
• 90-91°F0%
• 85°F or below0%
• 86-87°F0%
• 88-89°F0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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