Highest temperature in Jeddah on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, what will the single hottest temperature of the day be in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia? Each option is a specific degree reading, and you are picking which one matches the actual peak. Jeddah is a coastal city on the Red Sea, and mid-July is deep summer there, so temperatures in the low-to-mid 40s Celsius (roughly 106 to 110 degrees Fahrenheit) are very normal. The market is essentially a precision guessing game within a narrow, expected range. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah on July 21, 2026, using data from the Weather Underground website. The reading is taken in whole degrees Celsius only, so a reading of 41.7°C would count as 41°C, not 42°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 22 appears on that site. Any corrections published before that cutoff count; corrections after that moment do not. Only the airport station is used, no other source. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of information that would matter here is seasonal weather pattern forecasts for the Arabian Peninsula in summer 2026, or any unusual climate signals for the Red Sea region. Without that, the main reference point is simply Jeddah's well-established historical temperature range for late July. The core difficulty is that weather forecasting more than a few days out is genuinely imprecise, and this market closes over a year from now. The three leading options cover 41°C, 42°C, and 43°C, each priced fairly close together, which reflects real uncertainty within a tight band. Even on the day itself, a shift in wind direction, humidity, or a passing weather system can push the peak reading one degree in either direction. One degree is the entire difference between winning and losing here, so small atmospheric variation matters a lot.

The odds right now

• 43°C28%
• 42°C27%
• 44°C or higher19%
• 41°C17%
• 40°C9%
• 39°C2%
• 38°C1%
• 37°C0%
• 36°C0%
• 34°C or below0%
• 35°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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