Highest temperature in Karachi on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks: what will the single highest temperature be in Karachi on July 21, 2026, measured in whole degrees Celsius at one specific weather station? The three options are 32°C, 33°C, or 34°C, which in everyday terms is the difference between a very hot day (32°C is about 90°F) and an extremely hot one (34°C is about 93°F). The market is currently leaning toward 33°C as the most likely outcome, with 32°C in second place. This market settles based on the peak temperature recorded at Karachi's Masroor Airbase Station on July 21, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. Whatever the single highest reading is that day, rounded to a whole degree Celsius, determines which option wins. The market cannot close until the first temperature reading from July 22 appears on that site, giving time for any late corrections to the July 21 data to be captured. After that cutoff, no further revisions count. No recent news was provided that relates to Karachi's weather on July 21, 2026. The one headline is about an Indian parliament session, which has no connection to this market. What would actually matter here is any forecast for Karachi in late July, or reports of unusual heat or monsoon activity affecting the city around that date. July in Karachi falls during the monsoon season, which makes temperatures genuinely hard to pin down. Cloud cover, sea breezes, and rainfall can pull temperatures lower than typical, while dry spells can push them higher. The three options cover only a 3-degree range, so a small shift in conditions changes everything. The market spreads probability fairly evenly across 32°C and 33°C, reflecting real uncertainty. Long-range weather forecasting more than a year out is not reliable, so meaningful precision only arrives in the days before July 21.

The odds right now

• 32°C43%
• 33°C41%
• 31°C13%
• 34°C8%
• 35°C1%
• 30°C0%
• 36°C0%
• 28°C or below0%
• 29°C0%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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