Highest temperature in London on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: how hot will London get on July 25, 2026? Specifically, it asks which temperature bucket will contain the single highest reading of the day, measured at London City Airport. The options are whole-number Celsius values, and the market currently puts 28°C as the most likely peak, which is a warm but not unusual summer day for London, roughly equivalent to 82°F. The market settles based on one specific reading: the highest temperature logged at London City Airport (station code EGLC) on July 25, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so 28.7°C would count as 28°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 26 appears on that site. Any corrections published before that cutoff count; corrections after it do not. None of the recent news provided is related to this market. There are no weather forecasts or climate reports in the headlines to draw on here. What would actually matter to watch closer to the date are medium-range weather forecasts for London from sources like the UK Met Office, particularly any signals about heat patterns over Western Europe in late July 2026. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market ends over a year from now. The spread across the options reflects that real uncertainty: 28°C leads at 41%, but 27°C and 29°C together account for another 44%, meaning the market sees a wide range as plausible. A passing cloud system, a shift in wind direction, or a heat wave could each push the peak reading meaningfully in either direction, and none of that is knowable this far in advance.

The odds right now

• 28°C39%
• 27°C25%
• 29°C20%
• 26°C9%
• 25°C or below7%
• 30°C6%
• 31°C2%
• 32°C1%
• 33°C0%
• 35°C or higher0%
• 34°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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