Highest temperature in Lucknow on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, what will the single highest temperature of the day be at Lucknow's main airport? The three options on offer are 29°C, 30°C, and 31°C, and you pick whichever single degree you think the thermometer will hit at its peak. Think of it as guessing the hottest point of that one day in Lucknow, a city in northern India that sits in the Indo-Gangetic plain and experiences monsoon season in July. The market settles based on the peak temperature recorded on July 21, 2026, at Chaudhary Charan Singh International Airport in Lucknow, as shown on the Weather Underground website for that station. The number used will be a whole-degree Celsius reading. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 22 appears on that site, after which no further revisions to the July 21 reading are accepted. Whichever temperature option contains that final peak reading wins. No recent weather news was provided that directly relates to Lucknow temperatures on July 21. The one headline available is about India's Parliament session, which has no bearing on this market. For a weather market like this, what would actually matter to watch is any forecast update for Lucknow around July 21, or reports on how active the monsoon is in the region that week, since monsoon cloud cover tends to cap daytime highs. July 21 falls deep in Lucknow's monsoon season, and that is the core difficulty here. Monsoon days are genuinely hard to forecast because cloud cover, rainfall, and humidity can swing the peak temperature by several degrees compared to a dry summer day. A heavy rain morning keeps the high down; a break in the clouds lets it climb. The market spreads probability fairly evenly across 29, 30, and 31 degrees, which honestly reflects how narrow and uncertain the range is when monsoon variability is this high.

The odds right now

• 30°C28%
• 29°C24%
• 31°C21%
• 28°C14%
• 32°C10%
• 27°C5%
• 33°C1%
• 26°C1%
• 34°C or higher0%
• 24°C or below0%
• 25°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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