Highest temperature in Madrid on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 25, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in Madrid? The three options are 28°C, 29°C, or 30°C, and you are picking which one the thermometer actually hits at the peak of that day. Think of it as guessing the afternoon high on a specific summer day in one of Europe's hottest capitals. The market currently thinks 29°C is the most likely answer, at 41%, followed by 30°C at 33%, and 28°C at 16%. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Madrid's Barajas Airport weather station on July 25, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. The reading is in whole degrees Celsius, so there is no rounding between values. Whichever temperature bucket contains that peak reading wins. The result can only be confirmed after the first data point for July 26 appears on that site, and any corrections published before that point will count. No recent news was provided that relates to Madrid's weather or this market. The one headline listed is about a hospital in Malaysia and has no connection here. The kind of news that would actually matter is an extended heat forecast for Spain in late July 2026, or a meteorological outlook for that specific week. Weather forecasts for a specific day more than a year in advance are essentially impossible to make with precision. Even professional meteorologists work with wide ranges that far out. The three options here span just three degrees, which is a very narrow band, so a single passing cloud or a slight shift in wind direction on the day itself could move the result from one bucket to another. The market is fairly spread across all three options, which honestly reflects how genuinely open this question is.

The odds right now

• 29°C41%
• 30°C37%
• 28°C14%
• 31°C11%
• 32°C3%
• 27°C or below1%
• 33°C1%
• 37°C or higher0%
• 34°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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