Highest temperature in Moscow on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of the day be in Moscow on July 21, 2026? The three options are 23°C, 24°C, or 25°C, and whichever single temperature turns out to be the peak reading for that day wins. Think of it like guessing the top number on a thermometer for one specific day in one specific city. No ranges, no averages, just the single highest reading of the whole day. The market settles based on one official source: NOAA's hourly temperature log for Vnukovo International Airport, which is one of Moscow's main airports and the standard weather-recording station for the city. Whatever the highest whole-degree Celsius reading is across all hours of July 21, that is the answer. The market cannot close until at least the first reading of July 22 is published, to confirm the day is complete. Any late corrections to July 21 data are accepted until that first July 22 point appears, then frozen. The two news items provided have no connection to this market. One covers dengue prevention and the other an African gas pipeline project. There is no relevant recent weather news to draw from here. What would actually matter to watch is any medium-range weather forecast for Moscow around July 21, or updates from European meteorological services about heat patterns over western Russia in mid-to-late July 2026. Weather forecasting more than a few days out is genuinely hard, and a single degree of difference is a very small margin. The market currently puts 24°C as the most likely outcome at 40%, but 23°C and 25°C together account for half the probability, which shows real spread. A passing cloud, a shift in wind direction, or a larger heat system moving through could each push the peak reading one degree in either direction. One degree on one afternoon is close to the limit of what any forecast can reliably nail down.

The odds right now

• 24°C53%
• 25°C23%
• 23°C17%
• 22°C5%
• 26°C3%
• 21°C2%
• 27°C or higher1%
• 20°C0%
• 17°C or below0%
• 18°C0%
• 19°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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