Highest temperature in Moscow on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of the day be in Moscow on July 25, 2026? Specifically, it asks you to pick the right degree Celsius, with 21°C currently the most popular guess, followed by 22°C and then 20°C. Think of it like a temperature guessing game for one specific summer day at one specific location, Vnukovo Airport on the southwest edge of Moscow. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Vnukovo Airport on July 25, 2026, as reported by NOAA on their public weather page. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so 21.7°C would count as 21°C. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 26 appears on the site. Any corrections NOAA makes before that cutoff count; corrections after it do not. The two news items provided are unrelated to Moscow weather, so there is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch is any long-range weather forecast for Moscow around July 25, 2026, or historical temperature records for that date, since late July in Moscow typically sees highs in the low-to-mid twenties Celsius. Weather a year out is genuinely hard to predict with precision. Long-range forecasts lose meaningful accuracy beyond about two weeks, so right now this is mostly guided by historical patterns for late July in Moscow rather than an actual forecast. The market is fairly spread across a narrow range, 20 to 22°C, which reflects that honest uncertainty. A heat wave, a cool front, or even a cloudy day could shift the peak temperature by several degrees in either direction.

The odds right now

• 21°C33%
• 22°C27%
• 20°C16%
• 23°C15%
• 24°C8%
• 19°C5%
• 18°C2%
• 25°C1%
• 17°C or below1%
• 26°C0%
• 27°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.