Highest temperature in Munich on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of the day be in Munich on July 21, 2026? The three options are 22°C, 23°C, or 24°C, and you pick the one that matches the actual peak temperature recorded that day. To put those numbers in physical terms, 22°C is a mild, pleasant summer day (about 72°F), 23°C is comfortably warm (about 73°F), and 24°C is noticeably warm but not hot (about 75°F). The market currently prices 23°C as the most likely outcome at 38%. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading logged at Munich Airport (station code EDDM) on July 21, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. The temperature is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so a reading of 23.7°C would count as 23°C, not 24°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 22 appears on that site. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; corrections made after do not. The two news headlines provided are about a mountain rescue search and an oral cancer study. Neither has any connection to Munich weather or this market. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of update that would matter is a medium-range weather forecast for Munich around July 21, since forecasts issued a week or so out can give a reasonable early signal for expected daily highs. Weather forecasting is genuinely hard at a distance of roughly a year, which is the core challenge here. The three leading options, 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C, are clustered within just two degrees of each other, so even a small shift in wind direction, cloud cover, or a passing weather system on that specific day could tip the result from one bucket to another. The market also does not show probabilities for outcomes below 22°C or above 24°C, so an unusually cool or warm day could land outside all three options entirely.

The odds right now

• 23°C50%
• 22°C26%
• 24°C20%
• 21°C6%
• 25°C2%
• 20°C1%
• 19°C0%
• 26°C0%
• 28°C or higher0%
• 27°C0%
• 18°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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