Highest temperature in Panama City on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest recorded temperature be in Panama City on July 21, 2026? The three options are 30°C, 31°C, or 32°C (roughly 86°F, 88°F, or 90°F). You pick whichever single degree you think the thermometer will hit at its peak that day. Right now the market puts the most weight on 31°C, with 30°C and 32°C also seeing meaningful support. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading logged at Marcos A. Gelabert International Airport in Panama City on July 21, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground. The reading is rounded to a whole degree Celsius. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 22 appears on that page. Any corrections published before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. There is no human judgment involved, just one number from one source. None of the provided news headlines relate to weather in Panama City or anything that would affect this market. No relevant recent news was shared here. The kind of update that would matter is a seasonal forecast or an unusual heat event affecting Central America around this date. Panama City in late July is consistently warm and humid, so the range of 30 to 32°C is a tight, realistic window. The market is fairly spread across those three degrees, which reflects how small the difference is day to day. Cloud cover, afternoon rain, and wind shifts can all nudge the peak temperature by a degree or two. A single passing storm could keep the high at 30°C; a clear morning could push it to 32°C. Small, hard-to-forecast daily variations drive all the uncertainty here.

The odds right now

• 31°C38%
• 32°C31%
• 30°C16%
• 33°C12%
• 29°C5%
• 28°C1%
• 34°C1%
• 27°C1%
• 35°C or higher1%
• 26°C0%
• 25°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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