Highest temperature in Paris on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Paris get on July 25, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at Paris-Le Bourget Airport, rounded to a whole number in Celsius. Think of it like guessing the peak reading on a thermometer that afternoon. The three options are 29°C (about 84°F), 30°C (86°F), or 31°C (88°F), and you are picking which one that peak reading lands on. The market settles based on the highest temperature logged on July 25, 2026 at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport weather station, as reported by the website Weather Underground. The reading is rounded to a whole degree Celsius, so 30.7°C would count as 30°C, not 31°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 26 appears on that site. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. No relevant weather or climate news was provided for this market. The one headline supplied is about a hospital in Malaysia and has no connection to Paris temperatures. To follow this market, the most useful things to watch closer to the date would be extended weather forecasts for Paris and any meteorologist commentary about European summer heat patterns in late July 2026. Late July in Paris can swing meaningfully from one year to the next. A passing cloud system, a brief Atlantic breeze, or a heat dome from the south can each push the peak reading by several degrees. The market spreads its weight across three adjacent options, with 30°C leading at 40% but no option commanding a clear majority, which reflects genuine uncertainty. One year out, no forecast exists, so this is entirely about historical patterns and summer variability rather than any real signal.

The odds right now

• 30°C39%
• 31°C26%
• 29°C22%
• 28°C9%
• 32°C6%
• 33°C3%
• 34°C1%
• 27°C1%
• 26°C or below1%
• 35°C1%
• 36°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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