Highest temperature in Qingdao on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of July 21, 2026 feel like at Qingdao's main airport? Specifically, it asks you to pick which single degree Celsius the peak temperature will land on that day. The three main options are 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C, which in everyday terms is the range between a warm summer day (30°C is about 86°F) and a hot one (32°C is about 90°F). Whoever picks the right degree wins. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport on July 21, 2026, pulled from the Weather Underground historical data page for that station. The temperature is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so 31.7°C would count as 31°C, not 32°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 22 appears on that page. Any corrections published before that cutoff count; corrections after it do not. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. The one headline listed is about an Indian parliamentary session and has no connection to Qingdao's weather. What would actually matter here: forecasts issued in the days leading up to July 21, 2026, especially any outlooks from Chinese meteorological services mentioning heat patterns over Shandong province, where Qingdao is located. Weather one year out is genuinely hard to predict. The market spreads probability fairly evenly across 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C, which reflects real uncertainty: late July in Qingdao is warm but moderated by the sea, and any given day can swing a few degrees depending on wind direction, cloud cover, or passing weather systems. A single degree is a narrow target. Even a reliable seasonal forecast cannot tell you whether the peak that specific day lands at 31°C versus 32°C.

The odds right now

• 31°C37%
• 32°C27%
• 30°C17%
• 33°C or higher9%
• 29°C4%
• 28°C2%
• 27°C1%
• 26°C0%
• 23°C or below0%
• 24°C0%
• 25°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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